Reading between the lines, an analyst gathered data from a variety of sources to reveal the depth of government election manipulation in Russia. Author and analyst Sergey Shpilkin is an expert in using statistical analysis to reveal flaws in government released election data. Working at the Wilson Center, a think tank chartered by Congress, he has created his own system for independent electoral research combining the Russian government’s data with the combined results of decades of research.
Shpilkin’s research has made headlines in Russia before as when he uncovered voter fraud using his statistical system in the 2011 State Duma elections:
According to preliminary research by the Russian physicist Sergey Shpilkin, who published statistical evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2011 State Duma elections, the natural bell curve of voter turnout compared to votes cast in Sunday’s election suggests that the true total turnout was just 37 percent — a whopping 11 percent lower (5.7 million votes fewer) than Russian officials claim.
If Shpilkin is correct, and you throw out the ostensibly falsified votes counted at precincts with turnout above 70 percent, then “corrected” election results are dramatically different from the official figures: United Russia’s share of the electorate falls from 54 percent to 40 percent, the Communist Party’s support rises from 13 percent to 18 percent, LDPR jumps from 13 percent to 17 percent, and A Just Russia wins 8 percent, instead of 6 percent.
In other words, Russia’s opposition parties could have won a slim majority in the parliament for the first time in well more than a decade.
Shpilkin is presenting his latest research at an event at the Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. this month at an event sure to draw headlines. From the event invite:
Detailed voting data analysis can illuminate the trends in a presidential election: from falsifications, to manipulations, to the true popularity of the candidate. Using extensive data collected over the past 18 years, independent Russian analyst Sergei Shpilkin will present the real picture behind the headlines of President Putin’s four elections.
Keep an eye on this report as it is sure to be watched by Vladimir Putin and friends.