Political Science Department publication, University of Copenhagen. Excerpt:

Back in the early 19th century, a skilled soldier could fire a flintlock musket 2-3 times a minute if subjects rebelled against the king and, at best, hit the mark at a distance of 75 metres. During the Arab Spring, the Syrian regime used combat helicopters against protestors, and tanks rolled through the streets of Cairo.

When autocratic rulers have access to modern arms that are both fast and accurate at long ranges, it allows them to suppress protests and riots more effectively and at a lower cost. Now a large study confirms that access to modern military technology substantially reduces the probability of democratisation of authoritarian regimes.

The study minutely details the spread of 29 ground-breaking military technologies in all independent states in the period 1820-2010 (see box) as well as the form of government in these states. Based on statistical analysis of the data, the study establishes connections between states’ access to specific weapons, their economy and form of government.

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