Democracy, elections and voting

Recent Virginia polling is evidence that excluding independent candidates in polling data participation harms accuracy. In a new post, Two Virginia Gubernatorial Polls Show Importance of Including Ballot-Listed Candidates in Polls, Ballot Access News takes a look at recent polling that seems to show that polls that don’t include independent or third party candidates are surprisingly less accurate.  Including all the candidates helps improve polling accuracy.  Take a look:

On July 16, both Public Policy Polling and Quinnipiac University Polls released Virginia gubernatorial election returns. The Public Policy Poll included all three candidates listed on the ballot, and got these results: Democrat Terry McAuliffe 41%, Republican Ken Cuccinelli 37%, Libertarian Rob Sarvis 7%, undecided 15%. See the details here. The Quinnipiac University Poll did not mention Sarvis, and merely asked respondents if they favor McAuliffe, Cuccinelli, or “someone else.” The “someone else” category polled at only 1%. In this poll, McAuliffe was at 43% and Cuccinelli at 39%, with 17% undecided. If Sarvis could get 10%, the Virginia Libertarian Party would be ballot-qualified for the next two elections. Thanks to Doug McNeil for the link.

Public Policy Polling published a lot of information on the race but here is an interesting section of the article:

PPP’s most recent poll of Virginia voters shows a tight race for the governorship brewing in November. Democratic nominee and former chairman of the Democratic Party Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli 41% to 37%, with Libertarian nominee Robert Sarvis receiving 7% of the vote. Cuccinelli is viewed in a mostly negative light by the state, as 32% of the state has a favorable opinion but 47% has an unfavorable opinion, including 57% of independents. McAuliffe is less well known, as only 70% of Virginians have an opinion on him, and are rather evenly divided, 34% saying they had a favorable opinion versus 36% with an unfavorable view. In fact, more Democrats have an opinion on Cuccinelli than they do about their own nominee…”

…“Our polling in Virginia this year has consistently found Terry McAuliffe with a 4 or 5 point lead,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Ken Cuccinelli isn’t a very popular candidate and Bob McDonnell’s woes aren’t doing much to help the Republican brand in the state.”

Also, from the Public Policy Polling “about us” section:

PPP employs Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology to poll quickly, cost-effectively, accurately and on a wide range of issues. Since 2001 we have conducted surveys for politicians & political organizations, unions, consultants, and businesses. View our client list. In addition to surveys, PPP provides automated message delivery services (robocalls). To learn more about what services we offer, go to Hire PPP.