Can governments around the world predict corruption with artificial intelligence? New research suggests so. Two University of Valladolid researchers in Spain built a computer model designed with artificial neural networks to predict which Spanish provinces will have a greater propensity for future corruption based on statistics like how long one party has been in power.

The fascinating paper’s authors were Félix J. López-Iturriaga from the University of Valladolid’s School of Business and Economics and Iván Pastor Sanz from the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, Russia. The authors published their work in the Social Indicators Research journal under the title, “Predicting Public Corruption with Neural Networks: An Analysis of Spanish Provinces”. From the research abstract:

We contend that corruption must be detected as soon as possible so that corrective and preventive measures may be taken. Thus, we develop an early warning system based on a neural network approach, specifically self-organizing maps, to predict public corruption based on economic and political factors.

Unlike previous research, which is based on the perception of corruption, we use data on actual cases of corruption. We apply the model to Spanish provinces in which actual cases of corruption were reported by the media or went to court between 2000 and 2012. We find that the taxation of real estate, economic growth, the increase in real estate prices, the growing number of deposit institutions and non-financial firms, and the same political party remaining in power for long periods seem to induce public corruption.

Our model provides different profiles of corruption risk depending on the economic conditions of a region conditional on the timing of the prediction. Our model also provides different time frameworks to predict corruption up to 3 years before cases are detected.

According to a write up about the new study at Science Daily:

To carry out the study, the authors have relied on all cases of corruption that appeared in Spain between 2000 and 2012, such as the Mercasevilla case (in which the managers of this public company of the Seville City Council were charged) and the Baltar case (in which the president of the Diputación de Ourense was sentenced for more than a hundred contracts “that did not complied with the legal requirements”).

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