Rick Hasen had the following guest post from David Toscano: in Electionlawblog. Here is an excerpt:

Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina have been on the frontlines of partisan division for over a decade, often being viewed as swing states in national electoral contests.  Now, each state’s Supreme Court occupies a similar position—making waves by using their state constitutions to overturn partisan redistricting maps and leveling the playing field for the parties in the upcoming midterm elections.

As the former minority leader in the Virginia House of Delegates, I felt the impact of hyper partisan redistricting up-close and personal. Despite Virginia Democrats winning four of five gubernatorial races between 2005 and 2017 and electing two US senators during this period, Republicans held a 7-4 majority in the state’s congressional delegation for much of the period. As recently as 2016, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in the House of Delegates 66 to 34.  Why? Because state Republicans controlled the 2011 redistricting process and passed maps that enabled them to retain control of Virginia’s congressional delegation and generate massive majorities in the House of Delegates.  After many years,  the federal courts struck down both the congressional and state House maps, and forced fairer districts to be created. Virginia Democrats then flipped the congressional composition in their favor, 7-4. And in 2019, Democrats won control of the Virginia House.

Entering the decennial redistricting process last year, Republicans held power in many more states than Democrats.  In 23, they had a “trifecta”, a situation where one political party controls both legislative bodies and the governorship in a state. By contrast, Democrats only had 15, meaning that the GOP could dictate maps in many more places. Many political pundits predicted that Republican control over redistricting would inevitably create more GOP victories in the midterms and almost certainly lead to a changeover in power in the US House of Representatives. Dave Wasserman at the Cook Report opined in early 2021 that “Republicans might reasonably expect to net between zero to ten seats …. from reapportionment and redistricting alone,” thereby gaining the six they need for control.

Read the full article here.