Ian Bremmer had this story in National Post. Here is an excerpt:

Brazil’s presidential election campaign is in full swing after officially kicking off on August 16, pitting leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (‘Lula’) against right wing incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro.

Lula is the clear favorite to win. As the first round of the vote on Oct. 2 approaches, the former president leads voting intention by about nine points. Neither Lula nor Bolsonaro looks likely to get enough ballots to win outright, though, so both candidates will face off in a runoff election on October 30. An average of all polls currently has Lula leading that race with a 12-point advantage over the president.

In 2018, Bolsonaro was elected on an anti-establishment, tough-on-crime, anti-corruption platform, in line with voter demands at the time. But this year, the main issue is by far the economy.

Read the full story here.