Who Will Win 2018 Midterms? Recent History Says Democrats

One key question surrounding the November polls in the United States of America is who will win the 2018 midterms. It appears key to answering this question is the approval ratings of the incumbent. The big two in the USA are the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. The country’s Presidents have been elected from one of these two parties for well over one-hundred years.

The key thing to know is that low approval ratings for the President have historically led to his party suffer during midterm elections as most voters would identify his party with him. Currently complicating this risk for the Republicans is that Trump is on the low-side of public opinion especially compared to how well past Presidents were polling at this point of their administrations. As a result, the Democratic Party might effectively make a comeback in the House of Congress.

However even with a major win, the Democratic Party might perform better in the House of Representatives while leaving the Republican Party to maintain control of the Senate. Vox journalist Andrew Prokop wrote a great piece that sums up the general view about how Republican prospects sit now. The analysis of the Democrats’ prospects in the 2018 midterm elections from this historical perspective is particularly poignant. He explained:

“To retake the House, Democrats wouldn’t have to just slightly improve on Hillary Clinton’s performance. They’d likely have to have their own supporters come out in force, Republican turnout be depressed, and a significant number of voters newly converted to the Democratic cause. Something like that happened in Virginia in 2017, but it remains to be seen whether it will happen nationwide next year.”