Republican Presidential candidate Ben Carson has released a new plan to win the presidency if he were to win the Republican nomination and that is to attempt to get 13% of the African American vote to beat the presumed front runner Hillary Clinton. Can he do it?
“If we can capture that much of the African American vote, it is mathematically impossible for her (Hillary Clinton) to win” Armstrong Williams said who is a longtime adviser to Mr. Carson speaking about the possibility that Clinton would win the Democratic nomination. And given the latest polls that were released, that could be a very real opportunity.
In the most recent polls that were released, Mrs. Clinton wins the top spot for the National poll in the Democratic primary with 56.3% of the vote while Mr. Sanders came in second with 30.5% of the vote. In the important state of Iowa Mrs. Clinton came in first with 52.5% of the vote while Mr. Sanders came in second in 38.8%. In New Hampshire, Mr. Sanders came in first with 46.3% of the vote and Mrs. Clinton came in second with 44.3%.
“I’m not saying that it’s not difficult” Mr. Carson said at a rally in South Carolina in late November. “But we need to start working on jumping on it, that’s what I’m saying”, Mr. Carson continued in his statement, referring to the Republican Party’s struggle to get the African American vote not only in the Presidential election but also in the general elections. In the 2012 Presidential election, President Obama got 93% of the African-American vote.
Carson “could do something for the country that has not been done for a longtime” Carson adviser, Armstrong Williams said referring to the upcoming elections. He finished by saying that Mr. Carson could “give American blacks an option in the primary”.
The last time a Republican presidential nominee was able to crack double digits in African American support wa during a Presidential election was in 1976 when Gerald Ford was able to get 15% of the vote. It has been difficult for Republicans since President Lyndon Johnson signed the 1964 Civil Rights Act into law following its passage and the advocacy from his predecessor John F. Kennedy Jr who was assassinated a year before its passage on November 22nd, 1963.
“You look at the economic conditions in the black community, why is it moving in the wrong direction” Mr. Carson said to reporters in Columbia, South Carolina, referring to the high unemployment rate among the African American community. In 2014, 23.7% of the black community was unemployed.
The Civil Rights Act which was signed by a Democratic president, ended the practice of segregation in public places, and also banned employment discrimination on the basis of race, color, sex or national origin.
African American attendees at recent Carson rallies have expressed interest in the candidate although some have admitted that they are still undecided. Sam Hawkins Jr, who attended a Carson rally in West Memphis, Arkansas in early November told reporters, “I’m just curious to see how this is going to play out”. “But right now, if he’s got my attention to have me here, that’s saying a whole lot”. Mr. Hawkins also said that he voted for President Obama the last two elections.
Another potential Carson supporter, Donnie Flowers, who is a surgical technician at Tampa General Hospital went to a Carson book signing in Florida in October after being inspired by Dr. Carson’s story and saying “today we did a lot of toddler operations and I wanted to make them smile” referring to a potential meeting with Dr. Carson and relaying his own story to Dr. Carson. “One hundred years from now, they’ll talk about Ben Carson as a great surgeon, regardless of what happens with his political ambitions”, Mr. Flowers went onto say. Like Mr. Hawkins, Mr. Flowers considers himself “non-committal” as of right now for the 2016 Presidential election.
However, all of this may be irrelevant if Dr. Carson is unable to turn around his struggling poll numbers as his campaign has seemed to have stalled in the last month. In the latest National Poll, Donald Trump comes in first with 29.3%, in second is Ted Cruz with 15.5% and in third is Marco Rubio and with 14.8% and in fourth comes Dr. Carson with 13.8%.
In Iowa, Donald Trump comes in first with 25.7% while Ted Cruz comes in second with 22.3% and Dr. Carson comes in third with 15.7%. In New Hampshire, Donald Trump comes in first with 28.3%, Marco Rubio comes in second with 12.3%, in third is Ted Cruz with 9.5% and Dr. Carson comes in fourth with 8.5%.
In the end, it is a smart strategy by Dr. Carson’s campaign to try and reach out to voters who would not historically vote for the Republican Party and it is would also be smart for whomever the Republican nominee should be to reach out to voters who may not normally vote for them and to try and expand their party’s base.
Links to sources:
1) https://www.history.com/topics/black-history/civil-rights-act
2) https://www.bls.gov/
3) https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/
4) https://blackdemographics.com/culture/black-politics/
5) https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-11-24/ben-carson-seeks-13-percent-of-african-american-vote-to-beat-hillary-Clinton
6) https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/06/us/politics/ben-carson-black-voters-republican-primary.html?_r=0
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