Following the election of President Donald Trump in November, political betting websites in England and Ireland are paying massive payouts to people who placed their bets with President Trump. In the run up to the 2016 election, President Trump was a 25 to 1 odd making him a long shot to win and Hillary Clinton the deceive choice for many betters.
“I was supremely confident. I thought she was going to win by a landslide. When the results were coming in, I was extremely confident,” professional better Paul Krishnamurty said following the results. Krishnamurty lost $15,000 with his bet on Clinton winning the election.
Many factors played into the upset taking place including President Trump breaking what is known as the “blue wall.” The blue wall a group of states in the upper midwest that have been traditional Democratic strongholds since the early 1990s. President Trump was able to break the wall, winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio along with Wisconsin. The winning of those states along with key states in the South, like Florida and Georgia, helped put President Trump over the top in the electoral college even though he lost the popular vote.
Trump won the electoral college with 306 electoral votes to Clinton’s 232. However, Clinton won the popular vote 48.2 percent to Trump’s 46.1 percent. The electoral college win being decisive gave Trump the victory.
Other factors along with winning those key states played a role in helping Trump pull off what is likely to be the biggest Presidential upset victory in history. One of those instances was the announcement by former FBI director Comey over the summer that Clinton was under possible investigation for wrongdoing by having a private internet server in Colorado. The announcement helped sow further doubt into the American public about the trustworthiness of candidate Clinton who was already seen as untrustworthy by the American people.
“Trump’s win was 1,000 time less likely than Brexit. I was arguing that Trump had no chance,” Krishnamurty continued. Many echoed Krishnamurty’s belief that President Trump had no chance, given all the controversies surrounding him during the primary season and the video that came out during the weeks in the run up to the election, which many thought was the death blow.
It can be said being hit with further accusations of lying and being unfit for office in the run up to the November election cost her the presidency. Clinton’s own self-inflicted wounds combined with a failure of polling in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, possibly because of a hidden Trump vote of people who did not want to admit they were going to vote for the President.
Some websites like Paddy Power in Ireland, made the mistake of paying out prizes weeks ahead of time and they’re payouts totaled $1 million weeks before the election.
“The recent flood of revelations have halted his momentum and his chances of winning now look as patch as his tan,” the website said three weeks prior to the election. The website was referencing the video that was leaked that showed President Trump talking negatively about women and other “scandals,” that surrounded his campaign like a Russia investigation that is ongoing to this day.
Bookies around the United Kingdom and Ireland gave Clinton an 85.7 percent chance of winning. (Political betting is illegal in the United States). 40 percent of betters placed their bets with Clinton, while, approximately, 10,000 gamblers thought President Trump would win.
“If Trump wins we’ll be facing a double payout and left with some seriously expensive egg on our faces,” Paddy Power spokesman Lewis Davey said in an interview a couple weeks prior to the election. The website payed out winnings to approximately 6,000 gamblers prior to the election.
In conclusion, this is a perfect example of the old saying “Don’t count you’re chickens before they hatch,” and it just goes to show that upsets in politics are a real possibility, even when ‘experts’ least expect them.
Links to sources:
- CNN Money Link: http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/18/news/paddypower-pays-hillary-clinton-bettors/index.html
- Fortune Link: http://fortune.com/2016/11/09/donald-trump-president-gamble/