There are rumors about in the diplomatic sphere, on twitter/X and in the Somaliland capital of Hargeisa, that the Trump administration might just be about to recognise Somaliland.

A short Horn of Africa primer: Prior to independence in 1960 there were basically two Somalias: the Somalia we know now (Italian) and British Somaliland (now.. “Somaliland”). They united at independence. After 30 years of hard times and a monstrous Siad Barre dictatorship, the whole country fell apart into anarchy in 1991. Not before the Barre regime bombed the daylights out of restive Somaliland. The latter have a crashed Somali MiG up on a podium in downtown Hargeisa: quite the troll. The area is a totally Islamic, clan based society and in a very poor part of the world.

Then something interesting happened. When it all fell apart what was (British) Somaliland in the north went its own way, declaring independence.

Nobody recognised this independence, so their path was as rocky as their hauntingly beautiful landscapes.

They couldn’t and still can’t get loans, foreign aid, insurance, air links or issue sovereign debt for the longest time and were just “out there”: dry, hot, alone and mainly forgotten.

And pretty… peaceful. They made elections – quite free elections especially for the neighborhood, and made a little money from remittances and selling camel meat to the Saudis. They issued (little recognised) passports, started a civil society and became something truly inspiring in a neighborhood of considerable sadness. With almost no help, aid or UN meddling.

Meanwhile “Original Somalia” fell into ruin, civil war, marine piracy and “Black Hawk Down” anarchy. They spat with traditional enemy Ethiopia and exported Islamic terror to neighboring Kenya. There was a LOT of aid, worldwide recognition and they became very much a Turkish reliant state. Turkey has become BIG in the Third World in recent decades, its long Ottoman fingers molesting various vulnerable places.

So things went, on different courses, that way for decades. There was a glimmer of hope a few years ago when Taiwan, a country familiar with being “out in the cold” started playing diplomatic footsie with Somaliland links and even embassies, of a type, were established.

Now there is a bill in the US House to officially recognise Somaliland with all the cool stuff that involves. This recognition will probably come with the condition they make nice with Israel and join the Abraham Peace Accords. It’ll be worth their while. US recognition would help Somaliland become a “real” country.

Peace with Israel, while one’s Muslim friends may frown, has been an economic and diplomatic boon for the UAE, Morocco and Bahrain.

The whole story is an object lesson in the advantages of friendship with the West, the USA and Israel. Always bet on the winning horse. Always align with, contract with and embrace international winners: Taiwan, the US, Israel and the like.

Meanwhile, “Original” Somalia may keep its Third Worldism, its Jihadi madness, “Al Shabab” terroristic chaos, and of course that reliable imprinteur of ruinous failure: “Palestine”.

With a bit of luck and American will, Somaliland may leave that all behind.

And they will prosper.